Decline to issue appeal: LA says school can meet needs with notional budget but school is not doing so. Is this a valid argument at appeal?

My daughter's EHCP has been declined after assessment on the grounds the school can meet needs through local offer / OAP. She is high masking ASD and as a result her needs are easy to miss in a busy mainstream environment. I sought her diagnosis privately and requested EHCNA myself as a result. She is entirely overwhelmed, distressed and attendance has dropped off completely and I cannot work as a result.

The LA have argued that needs can be met through OAP and external agencies. This is where I feel she has been let down by school. No outside agencies have been involved and the school did not submit any evidence of a graduated response to meeting her needs. I do not feel the LA EP report adequately illustrates the impact on her. The EP interviews were all online and felt quite light touch.

I feel stuck between the LA saying the school can make provision which the school ultimately cannot / will not. The LA summary of assessment has quantified, clear recommendations for 1:1 provision. Even if her primary school find a way to support her now in Yr5, I do not see how she will cope at a mainstream secondary and no acknowledgement of her proximity to transition has been made. Appeal evidence deadline is May, appeal date is Feb 2026 when she will be in Y6 and we've missed the 'transfer window' for secondary applications.

Thanks in advance.